Mathematical Models Show COVID-19 May Become Seasonal Virus Within a Decade

Recent research conducted by researchers from the University of Utah has found that in the next 10 years, the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which is responsible for the coronavirus, may cause no more than sniffles and coughs similar to the common cold. The researchers used mathematical models to predict how the body’s immunity changes over time. Their findings were reported in the “Viruses” journal.

Fred Adler, a professor of biological sciences and mathematics at the institution, explained that the models demonstrated a possible future that is yet to be addressed fully. He added that as people collectively develop immunity over the next decade, the severity of the coronavirus would decline. The researchers’ discovery also proposes that changes in the fatal ailment may be driven by the immune response’s adaptation.

Some evidence also shows that a seasonal coronavirus may have caused the Russian flu pandemic in the 19th century. However, researchers note that the viruses are more benign now. This is what led them to wonder if SARS-CoV-2’s severity could decrease over time.

To test their theory, the researchers developed mathematical models that included data on how the body’s immune system responded to SARS-CoV-2. They found that grownups who had been vaccinated against the disease or had already been infected were protected against severe symptoms. Additionally, children had a lower chance of developing severe symptoms.

They also discovered that grownups who had been exposed to huge virus doses had a higher chance of shedding more virus particles and experiencing severe symptoms, in comparison with those who’d been exposed to small virus doses. They noted that social distancing and wearing masks also helped reduce the virus dose.

The researchers then ran different versions of these scenarios through the models, which demonstrated that a growing proportion of the population would become predisposed to the mild ailment over a long period of time, which would make the SARS-CoV-2 just another seasonal virus.

Co-senior author of the study Alexander Beams noted that the new approach demonstrated that, in the long run, the body’s immune system will have been trained to fight severe infections. It should be noted that the predictions relied on key assumptions of the model holding up. Additionally, the models didn’t take into consideration every possible influence on the ailment’s trajectory. For instance, if new variants of the virus conquer partial immunity, the coronavirus may become worse.

The researchers plan to compare their model predictions with current disease data to evaluate the direction of the pandemic. The research was backed by the University of Utah and COVID MIND 2020.

If it is indeed true that Covid-19 could eventually become a mere seasonal inconvenience, nutraceutical product makers such as Healthy Extracts Inc. (OTCQB: HYEX) and others could have a role to play in coming up with products that support the body to shake off that infection.

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